The Sahelian desertification debate: a view from the American south-west     

Charles F. Hutchinson 《Journal of Arid Environments》1996,33(4):519-524

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祁连山地区1310年以来湿润指数及其年际变幅的变化与突变分析   总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23  

张志华  吴祥定 《第四纪研究》1996,16(4):368-378

本文通过用树木年轮资料重建的祁连山地区5～7月份1310年以来的湿润指数序列，建立了一个反映该地区湿润指数年际变幅序列，对这两个序列分别进行了等级分类和干湿、强弱的时段分析，并用最大熵谱分析法对这两个序列的不同时段分别进行了周期分析。采用HK突变检验方法对这两个序列分别进行了突变分析，发现祁连山地区的湿润指数及其年际变幅存在明显的突变年份。  相似文献   

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy     

A. Douaik  M. van Meirvenne  T. Tóth  M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.  相似文献   

近50 年海河流域径流的变化趋势研究   总被引：49，自引：0，他引：49       下载免费PDF全文

刘春蓁刘志雨  谢正辉 《应用气象学报》2004,15(4):385-393

该文用Mann-Kendall方法对近50年海河流域山区20个子流域的径流及降水的变化趋势进行了显著性检验, 结合降水, 径流及气温的年代距平值的同步分析以及径流对气候变化的敏感性研究结果, 对近50年海河流域径流的变化趋势, 提出了一个半定量分析的研究思路和方法。提出影响径流变化的三种类型:以气候暖干化为主, 人类活动为辅的径流显著衰减型;以人类活动为主, 气候暖干化为辅的径流显著衰减型;人类活动与气候变异都不明显, 径流无显著变化的类型。分析结果展示了气候、人类活动与水之间的相互作用。这种相互作用, 给径流的变化趋势分析和成因分析带来了复杂性与困难, 也给气候变化对水资源的影响研究提出了挑战。  相似文献   

GOALS模式对热带太平洋ENSO年际变化特征的模拟评估     

吴统文  吴国雄  宇如聪 《气象学报》2004,62(2):154-166

文中重点分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG最新发展的全球大气环流谱模式(R42L9)与一全球海洋环流模式(T63L30)耦合形成的全球海洋-大气-陆面气候系统模式(GOALS/LASG)新版本已积分30 a的模拟结果,通过与多种观测资料的对比分析,讨论了赤道太平洋海表温度(SST)的年际变化及其纬向传播、赤道东太平洋SST异常与其他洋面SST变化之间的遥相关关系、赤道太平洋浅表层海温的年际变化特征等研究内容.结果表明,COALS模式模拟出了赤道太平洋SST异常出现不规则的年际变化特点;赤道东太平洋SST异常的向西传播过程;赤道太平洋混合层海温变化由西向东、由深层向浅层的传播过程;同时也模拟出了赤道东太平洋SST变化与赤道西太平洋以及与西南太平洋海温之间的反相关关系,与南印度洋和副热带大西洋SST之间的正遥相关关系等实际观测现象.但COALS模式也存在明显的不足,如对赤道东、中太平洋SST异常的年际变化幅度明显偏小,没能模拟出赤道东太平洋的SST变化比赤道中太平洋强的特点;赤道太平洋SST从东向西的传播速度明显比实际观测慢得多,但混合层海温极值变化由西向东的传播速度明显比实际情况快得多;没能模拟出赤道东太平洋SST变化同西北太平洋SST的负相关和北印度洋海温变化的正相关现象,因此也影响了对南亚、东南亚降水年际变化的模拟能力.  相似文献   

Variographic analysis of tropical forest cover from multi-scale remotely sensed imagery     

Sergio Colombo  Mario Chica-Olmo  Francisco Abarca  Hugh Eva 《ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing》2004,58(5-6):330-341

Tropical forest mapping is one of the major environmental concerns at global and regional scales in which remote sensing techniques are firmly involved. This study examines the use of the variogram function to analyse forest cover fragmentation at different image scales. Two main aspects are considered here: (1) analysis of the spatial variability structure of the forest cover observed at three different scales using fine, medium and coarse spatial resolution images; and (2) the study of the relationship between rescaled images from the finest spatial resolution and those of the medium and coarse spatial resolutions. Both aspects are analysed using the variogram function as a basic tool to calculate and interpret the spatial variability of the forest cover. An example is presented for a Brazilian tropical forest zone using satellite images of different spatial resolutions acquired by Landsat TM (30 m), Resurs MSU (160 m) and ERS ATSR (1000 m). The results of this study contribute to establishing a suitable spatial resolution of remotely sensed data for tropical forest cover monitoring.  相似文献   

Holocene climate variability   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

Paul A. Mayewski  Eelco E. Rohling  J. Curt Stager  Wibjrn Karln  Kirk A. Maasch  L. David Meeker  Eric A. Meyerson  Francoise Gasse  Shirley van Kreveld  Karin Holmgren  Julia Lee-Thorp  Gunhild Rosqvist  Frank Rack  Michael Staubwasser  Ralph R. Schneider  Eric J. Steig 《Quaternary Research》2004,62(3):243-255

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Spatial variability and pattern analysis of soil properties in Dehui city, Jilin province   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

LI Xiaoyan  ZHANG Shuwen  WANG Zongming  ZHANG Huilin 《地理学报(英文版)》2004,14(4):503-511

1IntroductionSoil nutrient, as the synthetic results under the influence of various anthropogenic activities and the factors such as climate and topography, etc., possesses certain spatial distribution characteristics, and certain structural and stochastic characteristics. The study of the differences existing in different parts of the region lays the foundation for adjusting all management measures and all material input capacities and for gaining the maximal economic benefit. Presently, the …  相似文献   

Spatial variability and pattern analysis of soil properties in Dehui city, Jilin province     

LI Xiaoyan  ZHANG Shuwen  WANG Zongming  ZHANG Huilin 《地理学报》2004,14(4):503-511

Based on regionalized variable theory, semivariograms of geo-statistics were used to research the spatial variation of soil properties quantitatively. The results showed that the semivariogram of soil organic matter is best described by spherical model, the best model for semivariograms of soil total N and available K is exponential models and that of available P belongs to linear with sill model. Those soil properties have different spatial correlations respectively, the lag of organic matter is the highest and that of available P is the lowest, the spatial correlation of N and available K belongs to moderate degree. Spatial heterogeneities are different too, the degree of organic matter and total N are higher, the degree of available K is in the next place and that of available P is the lowest. Influenced by the shape, topography and soil of the study area, all isotropies of available P are obvious in all directions while anisotropies of others are manifested. According to the analytical results, supported by GIS, Kriging and IDW methods are applied to describe and analyze the spatial distribution of soil properties. The results indicate that soil organic matter, total N and available K are distributed regularly from northeast to southwest, while available P is distributed randomly.  相似文献   

ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF THE EPIC CROP MODEL FOR USE IN THE STUDY OF IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN WEST AFRICA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James Adejuwon 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2005,26(1):44-60

The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub‐Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model‐generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro‐environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation.  相似文献